Recently, a popular X (formerly Twitter) account, Bitcoin Archive, ran a poll asking a question: Are Bitcoin's four-year cycles over? In just ten hours, more than 10,000 users cast their votes — and 52% said yes.

That doesn't necessarily mean the end of the Bitcoin cycle model, but it does suggest that many in the crypto community believe the market is evolving. 

With institutional involvement growing, new financial products emerging, and macroeconomic factors playing a bigger role, it’s no surprise that confidence in the traditional four-year pattern is being questioned.

In this article, we’ll try to answer the question: Do Bitcoin cycles still work? But before we dive into that, let’s break down what these cycles are and why they’ve shaped Bitcoin price trends for more than a decade.

Understanding Bitcoin Cycles

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If you’ve been following Bitcoin for a while, you’ve probably heard of its famous 4-year cycle. This cycle plays a crucial role in shaping market behavior, influencing everything from investor sentiment to price action.

Here’s a simplified breakdown of the four phases of a typical Bitcoin cycle:

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1. Markup Phase (Bull Market)

This phase usually kicks off after a Bitcoin halving, when the supply of new BTC drops. As demand starts to rise and supply tightens, prices begin climbing — sometimes rapidly. Optimism builds, headlines turn bullish, and more money flows in. Volume grows as both retail and institutional buyers jump in.

2. Distribution Phase

After a big rally, the market cools down. Prices move sideways, and volume stays high. Whales quietly sell into strength, locking in profits, while new buyers still hope for more upside. Sentiment becomes mixed, and the excitement starts to fade.

3. Markdown Phase (Bear Market)

Eventually, sellers take control. Prices fall, fear takes over, and negative news spreads fast. Panic selling kicks in, and trading volume often spikes on the way down.

4. Accumulation Phase

After the drop, the market flattens out. Prices stabilize at lower levels, and selling slows. Behind the scenes, long-term investors and institutions begin quietly buying again — often preparing for the next halving and the cycle that follows.

But what if the four-year cycle is no longer reliable? Then we could be facing something different — either a strong drop in prices or a bull market that lasts much longer than before.

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Factors that challenge the cycle

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In every crypto cycle, one key concept plays a huge role: liquidity flow — the movement of capital from one cryptocurrency to another. This flow has shaped countless market rallies and corrections. And usually, the pattern is clear.

Bitcoin is the starting point. It’s the first to attract capital as confidence returns to the market. Then comes Ethereum — a natural next step as investors look to diversify. After that, large-cap altcoins begin to rise, and finally, money spills into small-cap altcoins, often resulting in the explosive altcoin seasons we've seen in previous bull runs.

This isn't just market behavior — it's trader psychology in action. As prices rise, so does risk appetite. Investors rotate from safer assets into higher-risk, higher-reward plays, chasing bigger gains as the crypto market gains momentum.

But here’s the issue: this cycle isn’t following the script.

We’re now more than a year past the most recent Bitcoin halving, and while Bitcoin has seen gains, altcoins have largely underperformed. 

So what’s different this time? The answer seems to lie in who’s driving the market. 

In past cycles, retail investors were the dominant force, pouring money across the board and fueling massive rallies in smaller-cap tokens. This time, the rally has been powered by institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs. While this has helped push Bitcoin’s price higher, institutional capital tends to stay within large, highly liquid assets — it doesn’t trickle down the way retail money does.

• Early ETF excitement stole the show

In January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs finally got the green light. Big moment. The hype was massive — and it drove prices up to around $74,000 before the halving even happened. So when the actual halving rolled around, there wasn’t much gas left in the tank. That demand? It might’ve shown up too early.

• Bitcoin’s growing up — and that changes the game

Back in 2016 or even 2020, halvings had a major impact. But the market was smaller then. Today, Bitcoin is tied into bigger systems — institutional investors, global economic trends, government policy.

• U.S. Economic Conditions Weigh Heavily

Let’s face it: 2024 wasn’t great for the U.S. economy. Manufacturing slowed down, the PMI dropped, and investors got cautious. And when the economy’s shaky, people aren’t rushing into volatile assets — even Bitcoin. That macro pressure has overshadowed the usual halving-driven optimism.

• Trump’s announcement added to the confusion

In March 2025, Trump announced a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — a bold headline with no immediate action. The lack of clarity spooked markets and contributed to a downturn from January's highs. Coupled with tariffs and political volatility, this further pressured Bitcoin's price.

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The Numbers Don’t Lie: This Cycle’s Looking Weak

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Let’s look at how Bitcoin performed one year after each halving:

• 2012: +8,233%
  
  
• 2016: +285%
  
  
• 2020: +525%
  
  
• 2024–2025: just +33.85% so far
  
  

That’s a big drop. And August 2024 is officially the worst post-halving month on record.

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But Is the Cycle Really Over?

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Here’s where things get interesting. Some people think the cycle isn’t broken — just delayed.

Historically, Bitcoin peaks 12 to 18 months after the halving. That means the real action could still be coming later in 2025. Some predictions are calling for a top around $125,000, followed by the usual drop back to $50K-ish in 2026. Others are watching for signs of an explosive mid-cycle surge — something we’ve seen in past cycles too.

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Final Thought: Maybe the Cycle’s Just… Changing

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It’s worth saying that the four-year cycle model never was the law. It’s always been more of a pattern — one that held up pretty well in the past, but was never guaranteed to last forever.

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Many in the space have long suspected that as the market matures, the cycle might evolve — or even fade out completely.

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Bottom line? The old patterns are being challenged, but they’re not completely out the window. Whether this is a one-off deviation or the start of a new normal — we’ll know soon enough.

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